Participation in the Methodology Workshop on Analysing the Future

1 December 2023

From November 20 to 24, two research associates of the Center for Crisis Early Warning, Melle Zwankhuizen and Lena Runge, took part in a workshop on methodologies for analysing the future. The workshop was offered by the Bundeswehr Command and Staff College of the German Armed Forces and took place in Berlin. The aim of the course was to teach participants both quantitative and qualitative methods of future analysis and strategic foresight.

Participants from all over Germany but also from London travelled to the German capital for this workshop. In general, various state institutions from the German federal level as well as lecturers and researchers from German and European universities participated. Due to the different participants a variety of disciplinary backgrounds were represented, and the diversity of the available expertise proved to be an enormous enrichment in the joint discussions and working groups.

The overall theme of the workshop addressed future innovations and new technologies. The focus was on presenting selected developments and recent trends from various perspectives, including economic, technological, social, ecological, and legal views. During the workshop several invited experts presented their work or research and gave some informative impulses for vivid discussions with the participants. The external input alternated with diverse tasks that were dealt with in small working groups among the participants. In this context, the different working groups conducted an exemplary scenario analysis. Based on the findings of each working group the principles of strategy development were also tested in an exemplary manner.

Overall, the course did not only offer an excellent learning environment, but also the opportunity for a joint exchange between the participants on previous experiences, best practices, interdepartmental synergies and current projects in the field of future analysis.

For the work of the Center for Crisis Early Warning, existing knowledge relating to scenario analysis and strategic foresight was deepened and new insights were gained. These will be applied in current and future projects and further expand the expertise at the Center in terms of using various quantitative and qualitative methods of future analysis in crisis early warning.

Picture source: © UniBw M