Publications for download

We provide our publications here for download. These publications are an essential part of our research work and offer important information/backgrounds and forecasts on various current topics.

Automated information extraction from text variables in event datasets with large language models
Automated information extraction from text variables in event datasets with large language models

Authors:
Laura Braun, Christian Oswald

Published online via SocArXiv:
March 21, 2025
The night before or the morning after: Coup risk, failed coup attempts, and minister removals in autocracies
The night before or the morning after: Coup risk, failed coup attempts, and minister removals in autocracies

Authors:
Christian Oswald,
Julian Walterskirchen,
Sonja Häffner, Marco Binetti, Christoph Dworschak

Published online via SocArXiv:
October 22, 2024
Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty

Authors CCEW:
Marco Binetti, Tobias Bohne, Sonja Häffner, Daniel Mittermaier, Christian Oswald, Julian Walterskirchen

Published online by Cornell University:
July 08, 2024
I still haven't found what I'm looking for: Predicting security-related incidents and conflict fatalities with Google Trends and Wikipedia data
I still haven't found what I'm looking for: Predicting security-related incidents and conflict fatalities with Google Trends and Wikipedia data

Authors:
Christian Oswald

Published online via SocArXiv:
September 27, 2024
Text as Data for Crisis-Early Warning: A Comparative Assessment of NLP Methods for Conflict Prediction
Text as Data for Crisis-Early Warning: A Comparative Assessment of NLP Methods for Conflict Prediction

Authors:
Julian Walterskirchen, Sonja Häffner

Published online via SocArXiv:
July 18, 2024
Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers
Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers

Authors:
Julian Walterskirchen, Sonja Häffner, Christian Oswald, Marco Binetti

Published online via SocArXiv:
July 11, 2024
Forests of UncertainT(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict
Forests of UncertainT(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict

Authors:
Daniel Mittermaier, Tobias Bohne, Martin Hofer

Published online:
June, 2024
Replication of The Morning After: Report from the Nottingham Replication Games
Replication of The Morning After: Report from the Nottingham Replication Games

Authors:
Christian Oswald, Julian Walterskirchen, Sonja Häffner, Marco Nicola Binetti, Christoph Dworschak

Published online via SocArXiv:
July 03, 2023
Introducing an Interpretable Deep Learning Approach to Domain-Specific Dictionary Creation: A Use Case for Conflict Prediction
Introducing an Interpretable Deep Learning Approach to Domain-Specific Dictionary Creation: A Use Case for Conflict Prediction

Authors:
Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer,
Maximilian Nagl, Julian Walterskirchen

Published online by Cambridge University Press (Political Analysis):
March 22, 2023