CCEW co-develops the Climate-Conflict-Vulnerability Index

8 October 2024

The CCVI is created and evaluated in the context of a multi-year (2022-2025) interdisciplinary research effort between the Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW) at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich and the FutureLab Security, Ethnic Conflicts and Migration at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The German Federal Foreign Office commissions the project. It aims to provide decision-makers — inside and outside government institutions — with data-driven support for navigating the climate-conflict nexus along various dimensions of human security. 

Snapshot from the CCVI. Source: Federal Foreign Office Division S05 - PREVIEW.

"Our index provides crucial added value for decision-makers who aim to reduce risks in a changing climate based on scientific evidence," explains Dr. Barbora Šedová from the PIK. "It enables the timely and geographically precise identification of a range of climate- and conflict-related risk drivers." The development of the index aligns with PIK’s mission to promote science-based decision-making for a safe and just climate future. By providing well-founded analyses, the CCVI supports policymakers in developing evidence-based strategies to address climate-related risks.

The CCVI differs from similar indices through its high spatial and temporal resolution and its focus on user-friendliness. It is based on robust theoretical and methodological foundations. All data, codes, and methods are developed based on public data sources and shared publicly under open-source licensing terms. The CCVI was not only developed in constant exchange with potential users, but its user-friendly visualization platform also makes the index accessible to a wide range of users—from policymakers and security experts to humanitarian organizations. The index will be validated both quantitatively and qualitatively. A validated version of the index is expected in June 2025. 

"The CCVI offers an additional perspective on the potential interplay between climate impacts and conflict-related challenges," emphasizes Dr. Vanessa Gottwick from the CCEW. "By mapping the vulnerability of regions to climate- and conflict-related risks at a subnational level, potential crisis areas can be identified early on. Especially in fragile states, where climate impacts, social vulnerability, and conflict dynamics are often closely linked, the CCVI provides an additional tool to enable preventive measures and prevent escalations."

With the creation of the CCVI, the CCEW fulfils its mission to optimize the analysis of crises and conflict settings through innovative research approaches and interdisciplinary methodological expertise, enabling early preventive measures. The development of IT-supported tools is being actively advanced. 

The CCVI and its accompanying website, which is available at https://climate-conflict.org, will be presented to the public for the first time at the BCSC.