Participation in the Methodology Workshop on Analysing the Future

18 September 2024

There are various approaches to the puzzle of how to deal with the future development of conflicts due to the uncertainty factors associated with the future. In order to think outside the box of early crisis warning and learn from other approaches, our research associate at the Centre for Crisis Early Warning, Lena Runge, took part in a training on strategic foresight on 10 and 11 September 2024. The training was offered by Strukturierte Analyse Deutschland and was held on the campus of the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich. The training aimed to teach the participants methods of strategic foresight and to illustrate their application in diverse professional fields.

Various people from academia, federal authorities and the private sector took part in the training. The diversity of the participants' professional and thematic focuses and the expertise available proved to be enormously enriching in the joint discussions. The training focussed on the so-called scenario technique in which different future scenarios are developed and suitable indicators are selected, validated and evaluated.

The training was followed by the German Intelligence Community Conference on 12 and 13 September 2024, organised by Strukturierte Analyse Deutschland in cooperation with the Center for Intelligence and Security Studies (CISS) at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich. In addition to various presentations and panel discussions in the field of intelligence, including on the National Security Council, GenAI, the Delphi method and the establishment of Risk Intelligence Units in companies, the conference offered many opportunities for dialogue between politics, science and business.

Overall, the training and conference not only provided an excellent learning environment, but also an opportunity for participants to share their experiences, best practices, challenges and current projects in the field of structured future analysis and intelligence. For the work of the Centre for Crisis Early Warning existing knowledge relating to early crisis warning and strategic foresight was deepened, and new insights were gained. These impulses will be applied in current and future projects and further expand the expertise at the Centre.

Picture source: © CCEW / Lena Runge