Vortrag von Dr. Bahador Bahrami "Hybrid Wisdom of Structured Crowds"

Abstract

The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgement. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the 'Wisdom of Crowds' (WoC), has been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that social influence undermines WoC by reducing the diversity of opinions within the crowd. I will discuss new discoveries where we show that if a large crowd is structured into small independent groups, deliberation and social influence within each groups improve the crowd’s overall collective accuracy in questions of general knowledge as well as, and perhaps more importantly, in predicting future uncertain events.