Information and Impressions
Information to the CCEW Symposium 2024
Date: September 19 to 20, 2024
Topic: Predictive Synergies: Crisis Early Warning & Foresight
Opening Speech: Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala (University of the Bundeswehr Munich)
Keynote Speech: Isabelle Arradon (International Crisis Group, Brussels, Belgium)
Organiser: Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW) | Kompetenzzentrum Krisenfrüherkennung (KompZ KFE)
Location: UniCasino at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich
The CCEW Symposium 2024 Program: Description of Panel Topics | Day 1
Panel I: Text as Data
Chair: Eirini Ntoutsi, University of the Bundeswehr Munich
In recent years, academic research has witnessed a remarkable surge in efforts to diversify and enhance approaches to forecasting armed conflict. Among these innovative methodologies, the widespread adoption of Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods and Large Language Models (LLM) to extract valuable insights from textual data excels. As diverse as textual data is, so is the field of application for NLP and LLM methods in conflict research. This panel investigates three text-based research projects that deal with the following topics: forecasting autocratization processes, generating event data on situations of climate-related conflict and cooperation, and using ChatGPT-4 to support the development of future scenarios.
Panel II: Forecasting Instability
Chair: Nadine O‘Shea, Technical University of Munich (TUM)
Conflict's causes and impact appear in diverse guises of direct and indirect forms and cover a wide range of social, economic, political, and security phenomena. The complexity of conflict necessitates an integrated approach to grasp a conflict’s core fully. Hence, different factors, phenomena, and developments serve as a potential data source and indicators to forecast instability and potential conflict risk. This panel investigates topics ranging from data on riots and unemployment to forecasting climate-change-related mobility and the escalation of violence. Moreover, this panel will address the stakes of combining satellite and ground data as data sources for early warning of crises.
Panel III: Foresight and Communication
Chair: Boukje Kistemaker, King’s College London
In recent years, foresight methods for risk and resilience analysis in conflict research have increasingly gained more attention. Different foresight techniques encourage researchers, practitioners and decision-makers to profit from iterative, participatory and multidisciplinary discourse and the exploration of innovative approaches and methods. This panel investigates the use of foresight methods to analyse the future impacts of quantum technology on security issues and discusses the role of strategic communication of prediction data to decision-makers. Additionally, as a comprehensive crisis prevention process that profits from data-driven early warning and substantial foresight methods, this panel further investigates the combination of human judgement and model-based forecasts.
Panel IV: Predicting Violence
Chair: Paola Vesco, Uppsala University
In recent years, academic research has expanded its approaches to diversify and enhance approaches to forecasting armed conflict. In this surge in efforts, various Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been increasingly employed to capture complex relationships and dynamics inherent in conflict prediction models. In addition, geospatial techniques for discerning spatial patterns indicative of potential conflict zones receive a great deal of attention. Therefore, this panel investigates the usage of a set of different Markov-type latent state models and negative binomial distribution to predict fatalities from state-based conflicts on the country-month level. Moreover, the panel addresses a Gaussian process approach to estimate temporal and spatial trends and transform spatiotemporal data into a 3D shape to analyse complex diffusion of conflict patterns. Additionally, the panel investigates new data sources, modelling approaches and ways of improving transparency in detecting specific events.
The CCEW Symposium 2024 Program: Description of Interactive Sessions | Day 2
Armed conflict recurrence poses a persistent challenge to peace and stability with profound humanitarian and socio-economic consequences. Analysis of conflict data reveals that armed conflict of the past often recurs at a later point in time revolving around similar or even the same grievances, in several cases also involving new groups, alliances or incompatibilities. The tendency of conflict to perpetuate further violence in known and newly emerging conflicts underscores the importance of addressing underlying causes. Machine learning models offer valuable insights into general or escalatory conflict patterns, enabling stakeholders to anticipate potential hotspots. However, prediction models, thus far, cannot account for complex socio-political dynamics that drive conflict recurrence, especially when the feature group with the most predictive power is often past conflict itself. Thus, to some extent, new conflict patterns, emerging actors, and unexpected developments are disregarded. Foresight methods can complement quantitative analysis by exploring alternative futures and developing plausible scenarios for systemic risks and grievances. By combining data-driven analysis and foresight, we argue that stakeholders are better equipped to mitigate the risk of conflict recurrence and comprehensively anticipate critical developments.
The interactive sessions during the CCEW Symposium 2024 will involve an integrated approach combining the foresight method of scenario development and quantitative prediction results. Focussing on the combination, its advantages and challenges, participants will analyse three recently inactive conflicts in Kosovo, India, and the Central African Republic as data stresses that the risk of renewed violence is latent in post-conflict settings. Therefore, they offer a fruitful environment for risk and resilience analysis for conflict prevention. The interactive sessions comprise plenary sessions and exchanges in the respective working groups (corresponding to the three use cases).
Impressions 2024
Picture: ©UniBw M/Plank
Chatham House Rule
We are pleased to welcome you to our upcoming event. As part of the event, we would like to draw your attention to the application of the Chatham House Rule, which is mandatory for all participants.
The Chatham House Rule aims to promote an open dialogue among participants while maintaining confidentiality. The rule states that participants are free to discuss the contents of the event, but must not disclose the identity or affiliation of the speakers or participants. This allows participants to share their views and experiences honestly and openly, without fear of being traced or published.
As organizers, we want to ensure that all participants have the freedom to express their opinions and views without any consequences. We therefore ask all participants to adhere to the Chatham House Rule and treat their discussions confidentially.
We are confident that the application of the Chatham House Rule will help facilitate an open and productive discussion that will be of great benefit to all participants.
We thank you in advance for your cooperation and look forward to your participation at the CCEW Symposium 2024.
Terms and conditions
The following terms and conditions set out the legal rules applicable to the CCEW Symposium 2024. Participants shall be bound by these terms and conditions upon registering for the Conference and are advised to read and understand these terms carefully before registering. The Organiser will not accept any conditions contradictory to or deviant from these general terms and conditions.
Organiser
Responsible for the organisation of the Conference is the University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Center for Crisis Early Warning, Building 33, on behalf of ITIS e.V. Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, 85577 Neubiberg, Germany.
Registration
Registration to the Conference must be done through the online registration system and is binding. The registration deadline is September 02, 2024. Participants will receive an automatic confirmation of the registration details. If you do not receive one, please send an email to KompZKFE@unibw.de to make sure that the organiser has received your registration. Registration will only be effective on receipt of the registration fee. Please notify any corrections to your registration immediately.
Fees and Payment Condition
The registration fee includes admission to the conference sessions, detailed program, morning and afternoon refreshment breaks, lunch and dinner (no drinks). Travel, accommodation and meal expenses are excluded from registration fees and result in additional expenses.
The participation fees are owed upon registration and are payable within 7 days following submission of the registration (but not later than September 10, 2024). After your registration fee has arrived at our bank account you will receive an automatic e-mail message that the transaction was successful. All payments are made in Euro.
Participation is not guaranteed until full payment of the registration fee is received.
The conference program may be subject to changes.
Payments will be refunded if the conference will be canceled by the organizer. In that case, the organizer will have no further liability to the client. Registrations remain valid if the conference has to be postponed.
Liability
The organiser assumes no liability for the currency, accuracy, and completeness of the conference materials and content. The organiser also accepts no responsibility for any damages to persons or property that may occur during the conference.
Photographs and Videos
The Organiser may free of charge and without the further consent of the participants use and release pictures, shots and videos taken of the participants and/or their works (such as posters, excerpts of presentations or lectures) during the Conference for reports of the Conference and announcement of events in future.
Privacy Policy
All personal data provided to the organiser during registration will be treated confidentially. The data will be used and stored for further processing and documentation purposes. The information will not be reused for any incompatible purpose. Data will be shared with authorised service providers as necessary for the successful execution of the conference. The organiser will only disclose information to third parties if necessary for the fulfilment of the above-mentioned purposes.
Severability Clause
If any provision of these Terms and Conditions is found to be invalid, the invalidity of that provision will not affect the validity of the remaining provisions of these Terms and Conditions, which shall remain in full force and effect.
Disputes
All agreements between the Organiser and the Participant and all disputes which may arise between the Organiser and the Participants shall be exclusively subject to German law. Court of jurisdiction shall be Munich.
Bank information details
Account Holder: ITIS e.V. · Account No.: 27187376
Bank: Kreissparkasse München-Starnberg-Ebersberg · Bank Code: 70250150
SWIFT-BIC: BYLADEM1KMS · IBAN Code: DE50 7025 0150 0027 1873 76